Ontario Independent

Thursday, June 30, 2022

While the PC Party maintains its overall lead, the Liberal leader is gaining popularity

While the PC Party maintains its overall lead, the Liberal leader is gaining favour.

Key Takeaways:

  • Over a week into the campaign, a new survey finds the Progressive Conservatives still leading the other parties.
  • According to the poll, dedicated voters’ support for the PC party decreased slightly from 36.9% to 35.4 percent a week ago.
  • This implies a “big gender divide” in terms of who Ontarians would vote for at this point in the campaign, according to Nanos.

A new poll shows the Progressive Conservatives are still leading the other parties over a week into the campaign. Still, the Liberals are gaining ground regarding their leader’s popularity.

While PC Leader Doug Ford was named the favorite candidate for premier in a Nanos Research poll, 24.1 percent chose Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca, 20.3 percent chose NDP Leader Andrea Horwath, and 4% chose Green Leader Mike Schreiner.

Del Duca’s popularity has increased by more than seven points from the prior poll conducted on May 2. Since then, Ford has lost nearly a point, while Horwath has lost 2.5 points.

In a statement, Nanos Research Chief Data Scientist Nik Nanos remarked, “The Ford Progressive Conservatives continue to hold the lead over the Del Duca Liberals.” “Ford leads on the preferred Premier metric, while Del Duca has seen an increase following the campaign’s first week.”

According to the poll, support for the PC party among committed voters fell slightly from 36.9% to 35.4 percent a week ago. The Liberal and NDP parties each received 30.4 percent and 23.7 percent of the vote. Green Party support dropped from 4.3 % to 4.2 %.

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In the GTA, the Progressive Conservatives (35%) and Liberals (35.2%) are neck and neck. In contrast, in the rest of Ontario, the PCs (35.9%) have a significant lead over the Liberals (24.6%) and the New Democratic Party (NDP) (28.9 percent).

In an interview with CP24 on Monday, Nanos said the increased numbers around Del Duca could signify something to come for his party.

“So he’s up a full 7 % in the first week, probably since he’s new, didn’t make any mistakes, and it appears like his brand seems to be the big winner, at least for the first week,” Nanos explained. “While support for the Liberals remains flat, this movement for Del Duca is worth watching since it may indicate future Liberal support.”

When questioned which party they would vote for, the poll indicated a huge divide between men and women.

While the PC Party maintains its overall lead, the Liberal leader is gaining favour.
While the PC Party maintains its overall lead, the Liberal leader is gaining favour. Image from CP24

40.9 percent of determined male voters indicated they would vote for the PCs, 24.2 percent said they would vote Liberal, and 22.2 percent said they would vote NDP.

In a poll of female voters, 36.8% said they would vote Liberal, 29.7% said they would vote PC, and 25.3% said they would vote NDP.

According to Nanos, this indicates a “huge gender divide” in terms of who Ontarians would vote for at this time in the campaign.

Nanos Research was commissioned by CTV News and CP24 to conduct the survey.

Between May 7 and 8, Nanos contacted 500 Ontario people of voting age by phone and online to conduct the study. A poll of that measure has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

On May 4, the campaign officially began, and Ontario voters will go to the polls on June 2.

Source: CTV news

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